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Ohio State has won five straight and 16 of the last 20 meetings, including a 33-24 win at Ohio Stadium last season. This season the Buckeyes enter with an undefeated record in Big Ten play and some first-place votes in the AP Top 25. Meanwhile, this game is already a must-win for the Nittany Lions. They rebounded nicely last week with a 45-17 win over Minnesota, but the 41-17 loss to Michigan removed any room for error if Penn State wants to win the Big Ten. A loss here would not only give the Lions two losses, but Michigan and Ohio State -- the two teams it would be chasing -- would have the tiebreaker.
Penn State plays Ohio State tougher than most: While the Buckeyes have dominated the series for the last couple of decades, that's the case for Ohio State against most other Big Ten teams. The difference in this series is that the Buckeyes rarely blow out the Nittany Lions. While it's not the best way to measure things, it does say a lot that Penn State has covered the spread in five of the last six meetings, and one of those five was Penn State's 24-21 win in 2016. Ohio State's five wins since that game have been by an average of only seven points each, including one-point wins in 2017 and 2018.
Ohio State's defense has taken a step forward: The Buckeyes offense gets plenty of attention for good reason, but the biggest difference in Ohio State this season has been on the defensive side of the ball. After struggling in that area over the last few seasons, the Buckeyes defense ranks second nationally in total defense, fifth in points allowed per game, sixth in success rate and second in pressure rate. It's hard to argue that the hiring of Jim Knowles as defensive coordinator hasn't been the biggest acquisition of the offseason for Ryan Day's program, and it's paying immediate dividends.
As I mentioned earlier, Penn State is at its best when it can run the ball. I also mentioned Ohio State's defense being incredible this season, and I think the Buckeyes will limit what Penn State does on the ground. That limits Penn State's offensive ceiling. But I also think Penn State matches up better with Ohio State on the defensive end than most other teams, and it could force the Buckeyes to turn to the run game more than usual. So if I'm betting anything here, I'm taking the under. Prediction: Under 61
The Hawkeyes haven't lost three Big Ten games in a season since 2019, when they went 6-3 and 10-3 overall. Considering their history against Ohio State, it's safe to assume that streak will end this weekend. Iowa won the last meeting 55-24, but that game was in Iowa City, Iowa, and it was back in the 2017 season. Ohio State has dominated the series 46-15-3 since the schools first met in 1922.
Only one team has held Ohio State below 45 points this season: It was Notre Dame, which held the Buckeyes to 21 points in a 21-0 Ohio State victory. In fact, Ohio State has scored at least 40 points in 14 of its last 19 games dating back to last season, but it's facing a team build on defense an complementary football. Not many teams score 40 points against the Hawkeyes. In fact, only three have since the 2016 season (Penn State in 2016, Iowa State in 2017 and Michigan in 2021). If Iowa isn't able to slow down the Buckeyes its chances of winning this game will be very low because...
Iowa has scored 30 points in only one of its last 15 games: Yep. While the Hawkeyes beat Maryland 51-14 last October, that was the result of roughly a billion Maryland turnovers. After that, the only time the Hawkeyes scored more than 30 points in a game was in a 33-23 win over Illinois last November. Slowing the Buckeyes offense down is important, but nobody is going to stop it. So Iowa needs to figure out a way to score points, which has been a significant problem for it. The Hawkeyes enter the weekend ranked 127th nationally (of 131) with only 14.7 points per game. They've been held to single digits in three of their six games.
C.J. Stroud may look to make a statement: Well, maybe Stroud won't, but his coach Ryan Day might. It sure has felt like Ryan Day has been coaching with Stroud's Heisman campaign in mind, leaving his quarterback in games longer than he probably needs to, and I commend him for it. It's good for his player and his program. Still, there might be added incentive this week because while Stroud remains the Heisman favorite, his lead shrunk considerably last week while the Buckeyes were at home. Tennessee's Hendon Hooker threw five touchdowns in an upset win over Alabama and gained a lot of momentum. Don't be surprised if Day and the Buckeyes do everything they can to help Stroud answer with a big game against a top defense.
If I haven't made it clear yet, I don't like Iowa's chances of winning this game. That said, I have too much respect for the Iowa defense to not take the 29 points I'm getting on the spread. The Hawkeyes secondary has been one of the best in the country year after year, and while it's not going to stop the Buckeyes, it's better-equipped to slow them down than most other teams. The Buckeyes never sweat the result, but the Hawkeyes won't be embarrassed too badly. Prediction: Iowa +29
That is not good news for Rutgers, who won its first three games of the season before the 27-10 loss to Iowa. The Scarlet Knights are averaging just 16 points per game against FBS opponents, and that won't get it done against the Buckeyes. Rutgers may just have to take its lumps against Ohio State before turning its attention to a couple more winnable games against Nebraska and Indiana in the coming weeks.
Tommy Eichenberg, Ohio State LB: Eichenberg has been playing like a man possessed. Through four games, Eichenberg has piled up 33 tackles, five tackles for loss and two sacks. That puts him on pace to smash his 2021 season totals, and Eichenberg is coming off a dominant performance against Wisconsin in which he racked up 14 tackles and two tackles for loss. If he can do that against the Badgers, he should be all over the place against the Scarlet Knights.
Wisconsin jumped out to a 21-0 lead that day, with David Gilreath returning the opening kickoff 97 yards for a touchdown. These days, a 21-0 lead against Ohio State might not be big enough with the way the Buckeyes offense can put up points; Ohio State is averaging 47.7 points per game through their first three games.
Ohio State scored 77 points last week: The Buckeyes beat Toledo 77-21 last week in an awe-inspiring offensive display. However, the 11 touchdowns scored actually marked the fifth time the Buckeyes have hit that mark in a game since the 2000 season. The last time was in 2019 in a 76-5 (what a score) win over Miami (OH). The Buckeyes offense had 763 yards in that game, which is the second-highest mark any Ohio State offense has amassed in a single game since 2000. The highest was 776 yards in a 77-10 win (another one of those 11 TD games) against Bowling Green in 2016. However, the biggest difference in the two games is that Ohio State needed to run 94 plays against Bowling Green (8.3 yards per) but only 78 plays (9.8 yards per) against Toledo. The bottom line: it was a ridiculous performance.
The Buckeyes are still loaded at receiver: Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave were two of Ohio State's top receivers last year, but they left to play in the NFL. Jaxon Smith-Njigba was left behind and is considered one of the best receivers in the country, but he suffered an injury early in Ohio State's season-opener against Notre Dame and has hardly played since. No matter; the Ohio State Wide Receiver Industrial Complex motors on without issue. Marvin Harrison Jr. -- you might recognize that name -- leads the team with 342 yards receiving and five touchdowns through three games, and Emeka Egbuka is right behind him with 324 yards and three touchdowns. Jayden Ballard and Xavier Johnson have stepped in to fill the third and fourth receiver roles, while tight end Cade Stover is averaging over 17 yards per catch.
Graham Mertz is off to an encouraging start: The former five-star quarterback recruit has not lived up to the billing since joining the Badgers, but there are encouraging signs through Wisconsin's first three games of 2022. Mertz enters the week completing 71% of his passes for an impressive 11.2 yards per attempt. He's also thrown six touchdowns, though I'm sure coach Paul Chryst and the Wisconsin coaching staff have harped on him about the two interceptions. Still, for a player who threw 19 touchdowns to 16 interceptions in his first two seasons, a 3-to-1 ratio is an improvement. Of course, it must be pointed out that Wisconsin's first three games of the year have come against Illinois State, Washington State and New Mexico State. It's no coincidence that Mertz's worst effort came in Wisconsin's 17-14 loss to the Cougars. If the Badgers are going to have a realistic chance of pulling off an upset, they'll need Mertz to be the player he was in Wisconsin's two wins. 2ff7e9595c
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